Lowest temperature in Chicago on May 31, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on the lowest temperature in Chicago on May 31, 2026, while traditional analyst forecasts come from meteorological models and seasonal climate outlooks. Markets aggregate dispersed information and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes, often capturing shifts faster than static forecasts. Comparing Kalshi odds to National Weather Service seasonal predictions or climate models can reveal where traders see divergence from official guidance. Both sources have value: markets excel at near-term probability shifts, while meteorological analysts provide detailed physical reasoning.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Chicago on May 31, 2026 is priced as a set of binary or range-based contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new information emerges—seasonal patterns, climate anomalies, or updated forecasts—traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down. The market resolves based on official temperature data recorded for Chicago on that date, with payouts determined by which outcome actually occurs.

The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, after the lowest temperature in Chicago on May 31, 2026 has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by the actual minimum temperature observed in Chicago on that specific date. Official temperature data from a recognized meteorological source is used to settle all contracts. Once the data is confirmed and the market resolves, traders receive payouts based on which outcome they held at settlement.

Several factors could shift odds for the lowest temperature in Chicago on May 31, 2026. Long-range climate patterns, including El Niño or La Niña phases, influence late-spring temperatures across the Midwest. Major volcanic eruptions or solar activity anomalies can affect global temperatures months in advance. As May 2026 approaches, updated seasonal forecasts from NOAA or other meteorological agencies will refine expectations. Historical temperature records and emerging climate trends also inform trader positioning. Finally, any significant atmospheric or oceanic anomalies detected in early 2026 could trigger rapid repricing as the event date nears.