Lowest temperature in Chicago on Jun 5, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations for Chicago's lowest temperature on June 5, 2026, and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical patterns, prediction markets incorporate broader information including long-range climate signals, seasonal trends, and trader conviction. Comparing the market's implied probability to official National Weather Service outlooks or climate models can reveal where traders see edge or disagreement with consensus forecasts.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Chicago on June 5, 2026, is priced as a set of binary or range-based contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. Traders buy or sell shares reflecting their belief about whether the actual low will fall within or outside that range. Prices move between zero and one hundred cents per share based on order flow and market demand, with the final settlement determined by the official recorded low temperature from the designated weather station on that date.

The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026, after the close of trading on June 5, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Chicago on that calendar day. The specific weather station and measurement methodology are defined in the contract terms to ensure objective, verifiable settlement. Once the data is confirmed and published, all positions are settled according to which outcome bracket or threshold the actual low temperature falls into.

Several factors can shift odds for Chicago's June 5, 2026 low temperature. Long-range weather pattern changes, including shifts in jet stream positioning or sea-surface temperatures, may alter seasonal forecasts months in advance. As June approaches, updated meteorological models and ensemble forecasts will sharpen expectations. Short-term anomalies in spring or early summer weather, urban heat island effects, or unexpected climate events could also influence trader positioning. Seasonal climate indices and historical temperature records for early June in Chicago provide additional context for market repricing.