Lowest temperature in Chicago on Jun 11, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Chicago on June 11, 2026 is priced as a series of binary or range-based contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. Traders buy or sell shares reflecting their belief in whether the actual low will fall within that range. Prices fluctuate between 0 and 100 cents based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating greater market confidence in that outcome. As the event date approaches and weather forecasts become more precise, prices typically converge toward the most probable temperature range.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Chicago on June 11, 2026. The specific data source and measurement methodology are established in the market's contract terms at launch. Once the event date passes and the official low temperature is confirmed, the outcome is locked in and all contracts settle according to which temperature range or threshold the actual low falls into. Traders holding positions aligned with the final outcome receive their payouts.

Several factors can shift market prices for Chicago's June 11 low temperature. Updated long-range weather forecasts, particularly those issued 10–14 days before the event, often trigger significant repricing. Seasonal climate patterns, such as anomalous jet stream positioning or sea surface temperature trends, influence trader expectations. Historical temperature data for early June in Chicago provides a baseline; deviations from normal can prompt position adjustments. Additionally, broader climate oscillations like the North Atlantic Oscillation or Pacific patterns may affect regional weather systems. As June 11 approaches, medium-range forecasts become increasingly reliable and typically drive final price convergence.