Lowest temperature in Boston on Jun 13, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because markets price in tail risks and uncertainty differently than statistical models. While meteorologists issue point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric data, this market lets participants wager on discrete outcomes, creating a probability distribution that can highlight where traders see unusual risk. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd expects conditions more or less extreme than official forecasts suggest.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome has a bid-ask spread, and the midpoint reflects the implied probability traders assign to that range occurring. As new information arrives or trading volume shifts, prices adjust in real time, allowing you to enter or exit positions at the current market rate.

This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, after June 13, 2026 has passed. The outcome is confirmed once the lowest temperature recorded in Boston that day is verified against credible public sources. Traders holding shares in the outcome range that contains the actual low temperature receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can all shift trader expectations and move prices. Unusual atmospheric conditions in late spring, changes to ocean temperatures, or shifts in the jet stream could signal a warmer or colder June. Additionally, as the event date draws closer, more precise 10-day forecasts will replace longer-range models, potentially triggering sharp repricing as uncertainty narrows.