Lowest temperature in Austin on May 31, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Austin on May 31, 2026 is priced as a set of binary or range-based contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As May 31 approaches, prices adjust based on updated weather forecasts, seasonal patterns, and real-time trading demand. The contract settling at the highest price typically indicates the market's most likely temperature range for Austin's low that day.

The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, after the lowest temperature in Austin on May 31, 2026 has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on official temperature data from a designated weather station or source, ensuring an objective, auditable outcome. Once the actual low temperature is confirmed, the contract corresponding to that outcome settles at 100 cents, and all other contracts settle at zero. This timing allows traders to hold positions through the event date and ensures the market reflects real-world conditions rather than forecasts.

Several factors can shift market odds for Austin's low temperature on May 31, 2026. Long-range climate forecasts and seasonal outlooks released by NOAA or other meteorological agencies will influence trader expectations. Major weather pattern changes, such as shifts in jet stream positioning or tropical activity, can alter spring and early summer temperatures across Texas. Real-time weather updates in late May will have the strongest impact, as short-range forecasts become more accurate. Additionally, historical temperature records, urban heat island effects, and any unusual atmospheric conditions reported closer to the event date will drive trading activity and price adjustments.