Lowest temperature in Austin on Jun 4, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Austin on June 4, 2026, is priced as binary or range-based contracts tied to specific temperature thresholds. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the market's probability estimate for that outcome occurring. Each contract typically corresponds to a defined temperature range—for example, whether the low will fall below 65°F, 70°F, or another benchmark. As new information emerges about weather patterns, traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down to reflect changing expectations about Austin's minimum temperature that day.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026, after the lowest temperature in Austin on June 4, 2026, has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by official temperature data for that specific date. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process ensures that all contracts settle fairly based on actual meteorological observations from Austin on the event date.

Several factors could shift odds for Austin's lowest temperature on June 4, 2026. Major weather pattern changes—such as a cold front moving into Texas, shifts in the jet stream, or unexpected atmospheric blocking—would significantly impact trader expectations. Updated seasonal forecasts from NOAA or other meteorological agencies could alter probabilities. Short-term model runs released in the days before June 4 will become increasingly influential as the event approaches. Additionally, any unusual climate anomalies or heat waves earlier in spring could influence how traders price the likelihood of an unseasonably cold low temperature in early June.