Lowest temperature in Austin on Jun 29, 2026?

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for temperature-range outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract represents a specific low-temperature band, and the price of each contract reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As new information emerges or trading volume shifts, prices adjust in real time. Participants can enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes, allowing dynamic repricing throughout the forecast window.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once the actual low temperature for Austin on June 29, 2026 is confirmed. The outcome is determined by verified weather data from credible public sources, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement. Traders holding shares in the outcome that matches the recorded low temperature receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once the official temperature reading is available and cross-checked against established meteorological records.

Market prices will shift in response to updated weather forecasts, seasonal climate patterns, and atmospheric anomalies reported by meteorological agencies. Major weather events such as cold fronts, heat domes, or unusual pressure systems can trigger rapid repricing. Long-range climate indices and historical temperature comparisons for late June in Austin also influence trader expectations. As the event date draws closer, short-term forecast models become more reliable, often causing sharper price movements. Real-time updates from the National Weather Service and other authoritative sources serve as key catalysts for trading activity.