TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 28, 1:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the lowest temperature recorded in Atlanta on June 27, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the official National Weather Service Climatological Report for Atlanta, which records daily minimum temperatures.
Resolution is based on the minimum temperature recorded at Atlanta on June 27, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed via the NWS website by navigating to the Observed Weather tab and selecting Atlanta, GA with Daily Climate Report. The reported minimum temperature determines which outcome resolves affirmatively. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the authoritative source for resolution, not preliminary reports or third-party weather services.
Prediction market odds reflect the collective judgment of traders with real money at stake, which often differs from traditional weather forecasts. While meteorologists rely on physics-based models and historical data, this market aggregates dispersed information and incentivizes accuracy through financial reward. Comparing current odds to seasonal climate normals and professional forecasts can reveal where traders see asymmetric risk. As the event date approaches, market prices typically converge toward consensus forecasts, though divergences may signal overlooked factors or model disagreement among experts.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once June 27, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual recorded minimum temperature in Atlanta on that date. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution is final once the temperature data is confirmed and the market settles.
Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. Updated seasonal forecasts, climate pattern shifts, or anomalous weather systems approaching the Southeast in mid-2026 would influence trader expectations. Major atmospheric events—such as a heat dome or cold front—could trigger rapid repricing weeks or days in advance. As June 27 approaches, real-time weather models become more precise, typically narrowing the range of plausible outcomes. Breaking news about atmospheric conditions or historical temperature records for that date could also prompt sharp moves in this market.