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408,349

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Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026
kalshi

Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026

Volume:
$18,528

Below 4.6 million sq km

 - Kalshi

Below 4.6 million sq km - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Closed: Oct 1, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Below 4.6 million sq km

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,930
N/A
N/A
$1,577
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Below 4.8 million sq km

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$904
N/A
N/A
$867
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Below 4.5 million sq km

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,085
N/A
N/A
$2,397
Settled
No
kalshi

Below 4.4 million sq km

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,820
N/A
N/A
$1,490
Settled
No
kalshi

Below 4.2 million sq km

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,123
N/A
N/A
$1,684
Settled
No
kalshi

Below 4.3 million sq km

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,071
N/A
N/A
$1,086
Settled
No
kalshi

Below 4.0 million sq km

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$889
N/A
N/A
$823
Settled
No
kalshi

Below 3.8 million sq km

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$411
N/A
N/A
$307
Settled
No
kalshi

Below 3.6 million sq km

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$295
N/A
N/A
$208
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks whether Arctic sea ice reaches critically low levels during the summer of 2026. It examines daily measurements to determine if the ice extent dips below various thresholds, reflecting potential climate impacts and changes in polar ice conditions.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Arctic sea ice extent during the period from December 19, 2025, to October 1, 2026. Each threshold represents a specific level below which the sea ice extent must fall on at least one day for the corresponding market to resolve as Yes. The primary measurement source is the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC) Sea Ice Index Version 4, specifically the Northern Hemisphere daily CSV data. The underlying data point for all markets is the lowest individual daily extent value recorded within the specified timeframe, measured in millions of square kilometers. The markets are structured around progressively lower thresholds, starting from 4.8 million square kilometers and descending to 3.6 million square kilometers. If the recorded extent on any day within the period falls below any of these thresholds, the respective market resolves to Yes. The secondary rule consistently defines the underlying data source and calculation method across all markets, ensuring uniformity in how the extent values are determined and reported.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, analysts and climate models predict a continued decline in Arctic sea ice, but forecasts vary considerably regarding the precise extent in 2026. Some models suggest a substantial reduction, while others are more conservative. This market allows for a more precise and aggregated forecast, as traders weigh various factors and information sources. The collective judgment expressed through this market can offer a unique perspective compared to individual analyst predictions, potentially revealing insights not captured in traditional forecasting methods. It’s a dynamic assessment of probabilities based on real-time information and diverse viewpoints.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price moves based on supply and demand; if more people buy contracts expecting a lower ice extent, the price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect the evolving consensus of informed traders.

This market resolves around Oct 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent recorded during the summer of 2026, as measured by a recognized and authoritative source for sea ice data. The exact threshold for determining the outcome will be based on the contract specifications within this market on Kalshi. Traders will be able to see the final result and whether their predictions were accurate following the resolution date.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unusually warm temperatures in the Arctic during the spring and summer of 2026 would likely increase the probability of lower sea ice extent, potentially driving up prices. Conversely, a colder-than-average Arctic summer could have the opposite effect. Major scientific reports released regarding climate change and sea ice projections could also impact trading activity. Additionally, significant weather events, such as prolonged heatwaves or unusual wind patterns, could play a role in shifting the market’s sentiment and volume.