TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Hurricane Norbert category?
kalshi

Hurricane Norbert category?

Volume:
$15,430

Category 1 or above

 - Kalshi

Category 1 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 1:41 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Category 1 or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,700
N/A
N/A
$5,040
2mo 2d
No
kalshi

Category 2 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,478
N/A
N/A
$2,880
2mo 2d
No
kalshi

Category 3 or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,153
N/A
N/A
$1,144
2mo 2d
No
kalshi

Category 4 or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
2mo 2d
No
kalshi

Category 5 or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
2mo 2d
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks the intensity of Hurricane Norbert based on its maximum sustained wind speeds. The outcome depends on whether the storm reaches specific wind speed thresholds corresponding to different hurricane categories. Resolution is tied to observed wind speeds and a fixed expiration date.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the maximum sustained wind speed achieved by Hurricane Norbert, with five escalating thresholds corresponding to hurricane categories from 1 to 5. Each threshold represents a specific wind speed range, and the market resolves to Yes if Norbert's winds meet or exceed any of these thresholds. All markets share a common expiration rule: if the event occurs before December 1, 2026, the market will close at the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event. The outcome is determined by the highest wind speed reached, with the most severe category taking precedence if multiple thresholds are met.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final category will be determined by official meteorological assessments at the time the hurricane reaches its peak intensity or dissipates.