TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Hurricane Marie category?
kalshi

Hurricane Marie category?

Volume:
$8,806

Category 2 or above

 - Kalshi

Category 2 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 1:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Category 2 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,460
N/A
N/A
$719
2mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Category 1 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$279
N/A
N/A
$278
2mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Category 3 or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,672
N/A
N/A
$1,906
2mo 2d
No
kalshi

Category 4 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$298
N/A
N/A
$150
2mo 2d
No
kalshi

Category 5 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
$50
2mo 2d
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks the intensity of Hurricane Marie based on its maximum sustained wind speeds. The outcome depends on whether the storm reaches certain wind speed thresholds, which classify it into different hurricane categories. The event is monitored until December 1, 2026, with a specific expiration time after the event occurs.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Hurricane Marie achieves specific intensity levels defined by maximum sustained wind speeds corresponding to different hurricane categories. Each category has a distinct wind speed threshold: Category 1 or above requires winds of at least 74 mph, Category 2 or above requires at least 96 mph, Category 3 or above requires at least 111 mph, Category 4 or above requires at least 130 mph, and Category 5 or above requires at least 157 mph. If the hurricane reaches or exceeds any of these thresholds before December 1, 2026, the relevant market resolves to Yes. Regardless of the category, if the event occurs before the deadline, the market expires at the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event. The rules collectively provide a tiered assessment of the hurricane's peak intensity, with each tier building upon the previous one in terms of severity.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Hurricane Marie category market tracks real-time odds and price movements specifically on Kalshi. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different categories for Hurricane Marie, updated continuously throughout the event. You can also view the total volume of $8,806 and recent 24-hour volume of $0 to gauge market activity and interest as the storm evolves.

Currently, this market reflects trader sentiment that may differ from expert projections. Analysts often weigh factors like sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions, while market odds capture crowd-sourced expectations updated continuously. Comparisons can reveal whether the public is more bullish or bearish than institutional forecasts on Hurricane Marie's peak category.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final category of Hurricane Marie will be determined by authoritative meteorological sources at the time the storm reaches its peak intensity or makes landfall, and this verified classification will settle all positions in this market.

Key signals that could shift odds in this market include updates from national weather services on Hurricane Marie's sustained wind speeds, central pressure changes indicating intensification or weakening, and any official advisories about category changes. Models showing a rapid strengthening or weakening, land interaction dampening the storm, or new satellite data revealing eye changes can all cause rapid price swings as traders reassess probabilities.