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Hurricane Isaias category?
kalshi

Hurricane Isaias category?

Volume:
$377,594

Category 3 or above

 - Kalshi

Category 3 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 2:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Category 3 or above

View
100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$71,325
N/A
N/A
$33,058
4w 15h
Yes
kalshi

Category 2 or above

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40,158
N/A
N/A
$20,729
4w 15h
Yes
kalshi

Category 1 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,383
N/A
N/A
$6,727
4w 15h
Yes
kalshi

Category 4 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$226,160
N/A
N/A
$131,275
4w 15h
No
kalshi

Category 5 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,569
N/A
N/A
$27,764
4w 15h
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Hurricane Isaias will reach Category 4 or Category 5 intensity, based on maximum sustained wind speeds. Currently, the probability of Isaias becoming a Category 4 hurricane is 100.0%, and the probability of it becoming a Category 5 hurricane is also 100.0% on Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by whether Isaias reaches sustained winds of at least 130 mph, according to data from the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Keep an eye on forecasts leading up to December 1, 2026, as this date represents the end of the betting period and the point at which the market will resolve based on Isaias’ peak intensity.

Kalshi

Multiple markets assess Hurricane Isaias's intensity through ascending wind-speed thresholds corresponding to hurricane categories. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if Isaias achieves the specified minimum sustained wind speed—74 mph for Category 1, 96 mph for Category 2, 111 mph for Category 3, 130 mph for Category 4, or 157 mph for Category 5—as officially recorded by the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Regardless of category, all markets share a common expiration rule: if the triggering event occurs before December 1, 2026, the market settles at the first 10:00 AM Eastern Time following the event. This structure allows participants to evaluate the storm’s potential severity across different strength tiers using a unified timing framework.

Frequently asked questions

Odds from this market often reflect a blend of real-time trading sentiment and the latest meteorological data, which can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts that may rely on models or historical trends. Traders react quickly to new information, so this market’s implied probabilities can shift faster than slower-moving expert predictions, offering a dynamic alternative view.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final classification will be determined by authoritative meteorological agencies, and the market will close based on their official announcement regarding Hurricane Isaias’s peak category.

Key signals include official updates from weather services on storm intensity, path changes, and any rapid strengthening or weakening. Natural developments—such as unexpected wind speed measurements or shifts in atmospheric conditions—can cause rapid re-pricing. Traders will also watch for warnings or advisories that suggest a higher or lower category than currently expected.