TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

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$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Hurricane Hanna category?
kalshi

Hurricane Hanna category?

Volume:
$109,248

Category 1 or above

 - Kalshi

Category 1 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 3:11 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Category 1 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$72,731
N/A
N/A
$72,031
4w 13h
No
kalshi

Category 2 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,018
N/A
N/A
$29,018
4w 13h
No
kalshi

Category 3 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,620
N/A
N/A
$5,620
4w 13h
No
kalshi

Category 5 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$986
N/A
N/A
$986
4w 13h
No
kalshi

Category 4 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$893
N/A
N/A
$893
4w 13h
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks the intensity of Hurricane Hanna based on its maximum sustained wind speeds as officially recorded by the NOAA's National Hurricane Center. The outcome depends on whether the storm reaches specific wind speed thresholds corresponding to different hurricane categories. All outcomes share a common expiration rule tied to the storm's occurrence date.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Hurricane Hanna achieves specified wind speed thresholds that classify it as a Category 1 or higher storm, with separate markets for Categories 2 through 5. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if Hanna's maximum sustained winds reach or exceed the corresponding threshold—74 mph for Category 1, 96 mph for Category 2, 111 mph for Category 3, 130 mph for Category 4, or 157 mph for Category 5—according to official NOAA National Hurricane Center data. Regardless of category, all markets expire at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day following the date when the storm reaches the required intensity, provided this occurs before December 1, 2026. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of escalating storm severity against defined meteorological benchmarks.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price trends for the Hurricane Hanna category market, alongside 24-hour volume of $3,741. It displays how traders on Kalshi are positioning around the potential intensity of Hurricane Hanna, updated continuously throughout the event period. The interface shows price history and current market sentiment, allowing users to monitor shifts in expectations as new forecasts or developments emerge.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the odds through buying and selling contracts that represent different hurricane categories. The current implied probability reflects the market’s collective view of how intense Hurricane Hanna will become. Price fluctuations happen as new official forecasts, weather model updates, or real-time observations influence trader behavior, adjusting the expected category outcome.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final category will be determined by official meteorological assessments and widely reported data, closing the market once the facts are beyond dispute.

Several signals could shift this market before Dec 1, 2026. Updates from official hurricane tracking agencies, such as changes in wind speed estimates or forecast paths, will heavily influence trader sentiment. Sudden intensification or weakening of the storm, as reported by meteorological services, could cause rapid price swings. Additionally, broader climate patterns or anomalies that affect storm development may also move expectations.