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How many Tornadoes in the US in June?
polymarket
kalshi

How many Tornadoes in the US in June?

Volume:
$415,614

Above 350

 - Kalshi

Above 350 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 350

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$107,887
N/A
N/A
$103,142
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 375

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$47,597
N/A
N/A
$42,663
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 200

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$43,853
N/A
N/A
$9,646
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 225

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$23,527
N/A
N/A
$5,250
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 275

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,897
N/A
N/A
$7,683
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 175

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,448
N/A
N/A
$6,682
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 250

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,937
N/A
N/A
$8,911
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 150

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,571
N/A
N/A
$7,186
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 125

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,216
N/A
N/A
$4,727
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 300

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,536
N/A
N/A
$8,348
Settled
Yes
polymarket

310+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.7¢
N/A
$3,733
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 100

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,538
N/A
N/A
$5,411
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 325

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,136
N/A
N/A
$3,590
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,592
N/A
N/A
$928
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,326
N/A
N/A
$2,323
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$540
N/A
N/A
$539
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 425

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$35,523
N/A
N/A
$28,930
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 400

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,704
N/A
N/A
$10,704
Settled
No
polymarket

<100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100–129

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,528
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

130–159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

220–249

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190–219

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

250–279

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

160–189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,545
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

This event group predicts the total number of tornadoes that will occur in the United States during June 2026. Kalshi offers binary yes/no markets at multiple threshold levels, while Polymarket offers categorical range-based markets and a tail event market. Both platforms will resolve based on the official NCEI U.S. Tornadoes Time Series dataset.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use the same official NCEI data source, the same scheduled release date (July 9, 2026), and the same principle of resolving on the first published count without retroactive revision. Kalshi's threshold-based logic and Polymarket's range-based logic are mathematically complementary and cover all possible outcomes.Primary resolution logic: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page, with official release scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 5:01 PM GMT+1 (11:01 AM ET)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the preliminary tornado count published by NCEI on or after the scheduled July 9, 2026 release time
  • Only tornadoes appearing in the NCEI dataset for June 2026 count toward the final tally
  • The first count published after the scheduled release time determines resolution, regardless of preliminary or final designation
  • No retroactive adjustments, corrections, or revisions after initial publication will affect market resolution
  • Kalshi markets resolve YES if the tornado count exceeds the specified threshold; NO otherwise
  • Polymarket markets resolve YES if the tornado count falls within the specified range; NO otherwise

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Unavailable at Scheduled Release: If NCEI does not publish data by the scheduled July 9, 2026 release time, markets remain open until data becomes available. If data is not published by the next scheduled NCEI release date, resolution will use the most recent prior month's data as a fallback.
  • NCEI Website Permanently Unavailable: If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will use another credible source for U.S. tornado statistics.
  • Preliminary vs Final Status: Preliminary counts published on or after the scheduled release time are binding for resolution; subsequent revisions do not change the outcome.
  • Boundary Conditions: Kalshi thresholds use 'above' language (e.g., above 25 means 26 or higher). Polymarket ranges are inclusive (e.g., 100-129 includes both 100 and 129). The ranges collectively cover 0 to 310+ tornadoes with no gaps or overlaps.
Timing: Resolution occurs on or shortly after July 9, 2026 at 5:01 PM GMT+1 (11:01 AM ET), when NCEI publishes the official June 2026 tornado count. Markets will not resolve before this scheduled release time.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on July 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

Kalshi

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 25 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 50 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 75 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 100 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 125 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 150 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 175 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 200 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 225 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 250 , then the market resolves to Yes. If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jun is above 275 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets on Polymarket reflect real-time trader conviction about June 2026 tornado activity, while traditional meteorological forecasts and climate analysts typically publish seasonal outlooks months in advance. Market odds incorporate live information and adjust as new weather patterns emerge, whereas analyst forecasts tend to be more static. Comparing Polymarket odds to historical tornado averages or NOAA seasonal summaries can reveal whether traders expect June 2026 to be above or below normal activity. This gap often signals where market participants see edge relative to consensus expectations.

On Kalshi, the Number of tornadoes in Jun 2026 market is priced as a binary contract on whether more than 225 tornadoes will occur in June. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where each cent reflects a 1% probability increment. The current market price reflects the collective assessment of all active traders. As new information about atmospheric conditions or seasonal patterns emerges, the price adjusts in real time. Volume and liquidity on Kalshi determine how easily you can enter or exit positions at competitive rates.

Key drivers include updated seasonal climate forecasts from NOAA, El Niño or La Niña conditions, observed sea-surface temperatures, and atmospheric pattern shifts heading into spring and early summer 2026. Historical tornado activity in May and early June can signal whether conditions are primed for an active or quiet month. Major weather events or anomalies in the months leading up to June may shift trader expectations about atmospheric instability. Real-time weather data, jet-stream positioning, and soil moisture levels closer to June will also influence market pricing as traders refine their probability estimates.