How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of a relatively low number of states being in D4 during the specified week. This contrasts with some longer-term climate models that predict a broader expansion of drought conditions. However, it's important to note that analysts' forecasts often represent broader trends, while this market focuses on a very specific timeframe. Discrepancies can arise due to the market’s responsiveness to short-term weather patterns and evolving data, offering a more granular view than many traditional forecasts provide.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) during the week of September 22, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly map of drought conditions produced by a partnership of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, will likely serve as the primary source for determining the final count. The outcome will be based on the official D4 designation as reported by this source.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 24, 2026. Major shifts in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting increased or decreased precipitation in drought-affected areas, would be influential. Unexpected changes in water reservoir levels or snowpack in key regions could also move the market. Furthermore, any significant policy announcements related to water management or drought mitigation efforts could affect trader sentiment. Finally, the release of updated drought assessments from official sources could cause rapid price adjustments as new information becomes available.