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How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?
polymarket

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?

Volume:
$519

10 or more states

 - Polymarket

10 or more states - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 8, 11:52 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

10 or more states

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1-2 states

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7-9 states

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0 states

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5-6 states

View
0%
84%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3-4 states

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the US drought conditions market tracks the current implied probability of different outcomes for the number of states experiencing D4 (Exceptional Drought) during the week of October 6, 2026. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $164. The total volume traded on this market is $519, indicating the level of interest in this prediction. This allows traders to see how sentiment around US drought conditions is evolving.

Comparing the predictions made in this market to those of climate analysts reveals interesting insights. While expert forecasts often rely on complex models and historical data, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and perspectives. Currently, the market's implied probability differs from some analyst predictions, suggesting traders may be factoring in variables not fully captured by traditional models. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are not always accurate, and this market provides a real-time assessment of potential outcomes based on collective intelligence.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the market. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand, with traders setting the odds based on their own research and insights into potential drought conditions. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) during the week of October 6, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The United States Drought Monitor, a weekly map of drought conditions produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center, will likely serve as a key source of information. The market will settle based on this publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor drought conditions leading up to the resolution date to refine their predictions.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Oct 8, 2026. Major weather patterns, such as El Niño or La Niña events, are key drivers of drought conditions and could shift the market’s probabilities. Significant changes in precipitation levels, particularly in drought-affected regions, would also be closely watched. Government policies related to water management and conservation efforts could also play a role, as could long-range climate forecasts released by organizations like NOAA. Unexpected heatwaves or prolonged periods of dryness could quickly move this market.