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How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 13, 2026?
polymarket

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 13, 2026?

Volume:
$90

10 or more states

 - Polymarket

10 or more states - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:32 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

10 or more states

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0 states

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1-2 states

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3-4 states

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5-6 states

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7-9 states

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the US drought conditions market tracks the current implied probability of different outcomes for the number of states experiencing D4 (Exceptional Drought) during the week of October 13, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with price history and 24-hour volume, currently at $55. The total volume traded on this market is $90, indicating the level of interest and forecasting activity. This allows users to quickly assess the collective prediction and how it’s evolving over time.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for the number of states in D4 Exceptional Drought reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. While analysts may rely on climate models and historical data, this market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives from a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market perceives risks or opportunities that traditional forecasts might overlook. It's important to note that analysts’ forecasts can vary widely, and this market provides a real-time, aggregated view of expectations.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the latest information and collective wisdom of participants. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a specific scenario.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) during the week of October 13, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly map of drought conditions produced by a partnership of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, will likely serve as a key source of information. The resolution will be based on the official data released by this source, reflecting the drought status across the United States.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 15, 2026. Major shifts in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting prolonged periods of high pressure and low precipitation, could increase the likelihood of worsening drought conditions. Significant rainfall events or changes in water reservoir levels could have the opposite effect. Governmental policy decisions related to water management and drought mitigation could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, updates from climate scientists regarding the potential impacts of El Niño or La Niña patterns could also play a role in shaping expectations.