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How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
polymarket

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?

Volume:
$2,280

10 or more states

 - Polymarket

10 or more states - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 30, 2026

Closed: Aug 30, 8:18 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

10 or more states

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,826
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0 states

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5-6 states

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3-4 states

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1-2 states

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7-9 states

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the D4 drought states market tracks real-time odds and price movements for how many U.S. states will face Exceptional Drought conditions in the week of August 25, 2026. It shows current probabilities, historical trends, and $1,916 24-hour volume, helping users monitor market sentiment as the event approaches.

Currently, this market suggests a very low probability of any states being in D4 drought, reflecting a outlook that aligns with many climate analysts who expect moderate conditions for that period. While expert reports may vary, the sharp skew toward no D4 states mirrors recent seasonal forecasts showing ample precipitation and cooler-than-average temperatures across most regions.

This market resolves around Aug 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official U.S. drought maps for the week of August 25, 2026, are published and verified against credible public sources. The final count of states classified at the Exceptional Drought (D4) level will settle all positions, regardless of earlier market fluctuations.

Key signals include federal or state drought updates, major weather system forecasts showing sustained dry heat, and satellite-based soil moisture reports. Any unexpected shift toward severe dry conditions in agricultural zones could push odds upward, while consistent rainfall predictions or intervention policies are likely to reinforce the current low-probability stance.