How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be this month?

On Kalshi, this event is priced as a set of discrete outcome contracts, each representing a specific count of major Atlantic hurricanes for the month. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the winning outcome resolving to 100 cents and all others to zero. The current leading outcome reflects the market's best estimate of the most likely hurricane count. Prices adjust in real time as traders update positions based on weather models, satellite imagery, and seasonal patterns.

The market resolves on Jul 2, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official count of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur during the calendar month covered by the event. The final tally is verified against authoritative meteorological records from NOAA and the National Hurricane Center. Once the month closes and the official count is published, the outcome contract matching that count resolves to full value, and all other contracts expire worthless.

Sea surface temperatures, atmospheric pressure patterns, and wind shear forecasts are primary drivers of market movement. Any tropical depression or storm formation in the Atlantic basin will trigger repricing as traders assess intensification likelihood. Updated seasonal forecasts from NOAA, real-time satellite and radar data, and historical analogs to past active months all influence odds. Late-month activity is especially impactful; a major hurricane forming in the final week can shift probabilities sharply. Traders also respond to climate indices like the Madden-Julian Oscillation that correlate with hurricane frequency.