TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 25 - May 31?
polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 25 - May 31?

Volume:
$49,514

1

 - Polymarket

1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,413
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,911
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,165
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,137
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,309
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks the frequency of significant seismic activity worldwide during a specific week in May 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—exactly one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher occurring between May 25–31—stands at 71.0%, while exactly two such earthquakes is priced at 19.5%. Resolution will be determined by the United States Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program, which maintains the official record of global seismic events. Watch for any magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes recorded by USGS through May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as the market may remain open until June 30 to account for magnitude revisions or delayed reporting.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader expectations and often incorporate the latest seismic activity data, historical earthquake frequency, and geophysical models. Analyst forecasts from organizations like the USGS typically rely on statistical models of tectonic stress release and historical catalogs. Markets may diverge from analyst consensus when traders price in recent tremors, aftershock sequences, or emerging geological signals that formal forecasts have not yet incorporated. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is more or less bullish on high-magnitude events than institutional seismologists.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the May 25–31 observation window closes. Resolution is determined by the actual count of earthquakes worldwide that reached magnitude 6.5 or above during that seven-day period. Data sources typically include authoritative seismic networks such as the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and international seismological centers. The outcome is objective and verifiable, based on instrumentally recorded magnitudes rather than felt reports or damage assessments.

Major seismic activity during the May 25–31 window will directly influence odds. A significant earthquake above 6.5 magnitude anywhere globally will sharply increase the probability of higher-count outcomes and reduce the zero-earthquake scenario. Conversely, a quiet week with no major tremors will reinforce the leading outcome. Foreshock sequences, volcanic activity, or updated USGS hazard alerts issued just before or during the period could also shift trader sentiment. Real-time seismic bulletins and news coverage of earthquake swarms will drive intraweek volatility.