TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?

Volume:
$37,493

1

 - Polymarket

1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 3, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 3:21 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,047
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,683
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,934
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,917
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,827
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the July-August earthquake count market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the likelihood of one or more 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes occurring between July 27 and August 2. It shows current chances alongside 24-hour volume of $4,098, letting users monitor how trader sentiment shifts as the event window approaches.

Currently, this market implies a very high probability of at least one qualifying earthquake, contrasting sharply with many seismological analysts who emphasize low annual probabilities for such events. Traders on Polymarket appear more alert to short-term tectonic tensions than traditional forecasts, potentially pricing in regional monitoring reports or recent seismic unrest.

This market resolves around Aug 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Any earthquake of 6.5 magnitude or higher worldwide during the July 27 to August 2 window will determine the result, removing speculation through observable geologic data.

Several signals could shift odds before Aug 3, 2026. Updated seismic forecasts from monitoring agencies, unusual tectonic activity reported in news outlets, or academic studies on regional fault lines may all influence trader sentiment. Political announcements about infrastructure projects near fault zones — or major earthquakes outside the magnitude threshold that alter global seismic pressure patterns — could also create volatility. Any credible indication of heightened activity in monitored regions would likely raise this market’s probability.