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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?

Volume:
$20,612

1

 - Polymarket

1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 2:02 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,873
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,582
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$853
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$791
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the earthquake count market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the likelihood of one or more 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes occurring between August 17 and August 23. You can see current chances, recent price movements, and 24-hour volume of $266 to gauge trader sentiment on this seismic risk metric.

Currently, traders on Polymarket assign a near-certain chance to this market, reflecting a strong belief that at least one major quake will strike during the period. This contrasts with many seismology watchdogs, who often emphasize low short-term probabilities for such events. The gap suggests market participants may be pricing in model uncertainty or recent regional tension.

This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Any earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide during the specified window will count, regardless of location or depth, as long as reputable agencies such as USGS or EMSC officially record it.

This market could swing dramatically on tectonic monitoring updates, especially from high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Sudden surge in seismic activity, magnitude upgrades from preliminary reports, or government emergency alerts may push odds sharply higher. Conversely, a quiet week with no detectable tremors could drive prices down.