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How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
polymarket

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?

Volume:
$43,878

>13

 - Polymarket

>13 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 17, 2:34 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

>13

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

≤6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,250
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,403
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,918
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,403
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,087
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the August earthquake count market, along with current 24-hour volume of $2,356. It shows how traders on this single venue are pricing the likelihood of different numbers of 5.5 or above magnitude earthquakes happening between August 10 and August 16.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders actively set prices through buying and selling shares that represent possible outcomes. The current top outcome reflects collective user assessment of seismic activity risk over the specified week, with market depth and liquidity influencing how quickly prices adjust to new information or trading volume of $43,878.

This market resolves around Aug 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Seismic monitoring agencies will provide the official count of 5.5 or above magnitude earthquakes that occurred during the specified period, determining which market outcome is correct based on publicly available data.