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Highest temperature in Wuhan on June 9?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Wuhan on June 9?

Volume:
$59,980

30°C

 - Polymarket

30°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 9, 2026

Closed: Jun 9, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

30°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,800
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,435
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,971
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,630
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because markets incorporate real-time trader conviction and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from many participants with skin in the game. Comparing Polymarket odds to recent forecasts from China's National Meteorological Center or regional weather services reveals whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic scenarios than official models suggest. This gap can highlight overlooked risks or overconfidence in either venue.

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Wuhan on June 9 is priced through binary or range-based outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 1 cent, with the price reflecting the probability of that outcome occurring. The market uses an automated market maker to ensure continuous liquidity. As new information emerges—such as seasonal forecasts, atmospheric pressure systems, or historical temperature data for early June—traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down to reflect shifting expectations about the final recorded high.

The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026, after the highest temperature in Wuhan on June 9 has been officially recorded. The outcome is determined by the peak temperature measurement reported by the relevant meteorological authority for that calendar day in Wuhan. Resolution occurs once the day concludes and official data is published, typically within hours. Traders should verify the exact data source and measurement methodology specified in the market's terms to understand which weather station reading or official report will be used as the authoritative reference for settlement.

Major signals include updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies, real-time atmospheric pressure and humidity patterns, tropical cyclone or monsoon activity affecting East Asia, and historical temperature anomalies for early June in Wuhan. Urban heat island effects, pollution levels, and cloud cover predictions can also influence trader expectations. As June 9 approaches, short-range weather models become more accurate, typically causing sharper price movements. Breaking news about climate oscillations, El Niño conditions, or sudden weather system developments will prompt rapid repricing. Finally, actual temperatures recorded on June 8 and earlier days in June provide calibration signals that traders use to refine their forecasts for the final day.