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Highest temperature in Wuhan on June 7?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Wuhan on June 7?

Volume:
$84,298

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 7, 2026

Closed: Jun 7, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,447
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,820
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,304
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,565
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,521
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,679
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,683
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations for Wuhan's June 7 high temperature, while meteorological analyst forecasts rely on numerical weather models and historical climate patterns. Markets often incorporate broader information sets and adjust rapidly to new data, whereas analyst forecasts follow established modeling protocols. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more extreme outcomes than models suggest, or conversely, whether consensus forecasts diverge from market sentiment. Both sources offer valuable perspectives: markets capture collective trader conviction, while analyst models provide physics-based atmospheric predictions.

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Wuhan on June 7 is priced through an automated market maker that allows traders to buy and sell shares corresponding to specific temperature ranges or exact values. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract reflects the probability traders assign to that temperature occurring, with prices ranging from near-zero to near-unity. As traders buy shares predicting higher or lower temperatures, the market price adjusts automatically. Liquidity and trading volume determine how efficiently prices update, and the current odds visible on the dashboard represent the marginal price at which the next trade would execute.

The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026, after June 7 has concluded and the highest temperature recorded in Wuhan for that day is finalized. The outcome is determined by official meteorological data sources that measure and report Wuhan's peak temperature. Resolution occurs once the data is confirmed and the market administrator verifies the result against the specified criteria. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The exact timing of resolution may depend on data availability and administrative processing.

Weather model updates and seasonal forecasts are primary drivers of odds movement for Wuhan's June 7 temperature. Major atmospheric patterns—such as monsoon onset timing, heat waves, or tropical cyclone activity—can shift trader expectations significantly. Real-time meteorological alerts and official weather warnings issued closer to June 7 will influence market pricing. Historical temperature anomalies and climate indices like El Niño or the Indian Ocean Dipole may also affect long-range expectations. As the event date approaches, high-resolution forecasts become available, typically causing sharper price adjustments. Media coverage of extreme weather events in the region can amplify volatility.