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Highest temperature in Wuhan on June 11?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Wuhan on June 11?

Volume:
$32,583

31°C

 - Polymarket

31°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

31°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,911
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,089
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,971
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$399
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$373
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$363
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations, which often incorporate meteorological forecasts, historical climate patterns, and real-time weather modeling. Analyst forecasts from weather services typically focus on deterministic predictions based on atmospheric data, while prediction markets price uncertainty and assign probabilities across multiple temperature outcomes. Market odds tend to be more conservative or cautious than point forecasts, as traders account for forecast error margins. Comparing the two reveals whether professional meteorologists and decentralized market participants align on Wuhan's likely peak temperature for June 11.

The market resolves on Jun 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual highest temperature recorded in Wuhan on June 11, as measured by official meteorological stations or trusted weather data sources. Once the day concludes and final temperature readings are confirmed, the outcome is settled against the recorded data. Traders who correctly predicted the temperature outcome receive payouts proportional to their position size, while incorrect predictions result in losses. The resolution process ensures that market prices reflect real-world accuracy and maintains the integrity of the prediction mechanism.

Several factors could shift market odds before June 11. Major weather pattern changes, such as monsoon onset timing or tropical systems approaching central China, would significantly impact temperature expectations. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies and real-time atmospheric modeling releases often trigger trading activity. Historical temperature anomalies for early June in Wuhan provide baseline context; deviations from typical patterns influence trader positioning. As the date approaches, daily weather forecasts become more precise, allowing traders to refine probability estimates. Urban heat island effects, pollution levels, and cloud cover predictions also influence how traders price the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds being reached.