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Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 11?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 11?

Volume:
$123,293

38°C

 - Polymarket

38°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

38°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$30,928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

83° to 84°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,248
N/A
N/A
$4,800
Settled
Yes
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,961
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,678
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,207
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,644
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

85° to 86°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,288
N/A
N/A
$3,590
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

81° to 82°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,475
N/A
N/A
$4,485
Settled
No
polymarket

41°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,940
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,705
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

80° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,389
N/A
N/A
$1,620
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,328
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,877
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

87° to 88°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,724
N/A
N/A
$1,342
Settled
No
kalshi

89° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,175
N/A
N/A
$1,053
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,065
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in Wuhan on July 11, 2026. However, the Kalshi platform contains markets about Minneapolis temperatures on July 9, 2026, creating a fundamental mismatch with the stated event group title and the Polymarket specifications.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi contains a logical tautology (all temperature ranges resolve to Yes) and references the wrong location (Minneapolis instead of Wuhan) and wrong date (July 9 instead of July 11). Polymarket correctly specifies Wuhan on July 11 with coherent temperature-range markets. The event group title explicitly states Wuhan on July 11, making Kalshi's terms fundamentally unresolvable and contradictory.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group—they are logically broken and geographically/temporally misaligned. All liquidity and positions should be directed to Polymarket, which has the correct specifications. Monitor Wunderground for Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station data publication on July 12, 2026, to trigger resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Six conditions covering all possible Minneapolis temperatures on July 9, 2026, each resolving to Yes. This creates a logical tautology where the market cannot fail to resolve Yes, regardless of actual temperature. Additionally, the location (Minneapolis) and date (July 9) do not match the event group title (Wuhan on July 11).
  • Polymarket: Thirteen binary markets covering Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station temperatures on July 11, 2026, in whole-degree Celsius increments (31°C or below through 41°C or higher). Resolution source is Wunderground historical data, with resolution occurring after the first datapoint for July 12 is published.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum temperature recorded at Minneapolis/St Paul, MN on July 9, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed through the NWS website at the specified URL, selecting Minneapolis/St Paul, MN with Daily Climate Report. Temperature readings are divided into six ranges: 80°F or below, 81-82°F, 83-84°F, 85-86°F, 87-88°F, and 89°F or above. Each range corresponds to a distinct outcome. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) serves as the authoritative source, superseding other weather services.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices reflect aggregated trader conviction, which often incorporates meteorological models, historical patterns, and real-time atmospheric data. Unlike a single analyst forecast, this market synthesizes thousands of independent bets, rewarding accuracy and penalizing poor calls. Traders who study weather models, satellite imagery, and seasonal trends typically outperform casual guesses. Over time, these odds tend to converge toward actual outcomes as new information arrives. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to your own weather research or professional forecasts can reveal where consensus may be underpricing or overpricing specific temperature ranges.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances. Kalshi's contract structure and user base may emphasize certain temperature bands, while Polymarket's design and audience could weight outcomes differently. Regulatory frameworks, fee schedules, and settlement mechanics also vary between venues. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes emerge when one platform prices a range significantly higher or lower than the other, though transaction costs and slippage can limit profitable trades. Monitoring both helps you identify where the broader market consensus truly lies.

Updated weather models and extended forecasts are the primary drivers of price movement. Major atmospheric shifts—such as a cold front, heat dome, or unexpected cloud cover—can significantly alter trader expectations. Real-time temperature readings in the days leading up to July 11 will anchor bets more tightly around likely outcomes. News of unusual weather patterns, monsoon activity, or regional climate anomalies may also shift odds. As the event date approaches, intraday temperature trends and morning forecasts typically trigger the sharpest repricing, as uncertainty narrows and traders lock in final positions.