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Highest temperature in Wellington on June 9?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Wellington on June 9?

Volume:
$65,061

13°C

 - Polymarket

13°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 9, 2026

Closed: Jun 9, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

13°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,963
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,157
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,350
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,831
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,026
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,491
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$318
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket, while meteorological forecasts from agencies like MetService or NIWA rely on atmospheric modeling and historical climate data. Prediction markets often incorporate analyst forecasts but also price in broader uncertainty and trader conviction. For Wellington's June 9 high temperature, comparing market-implied probabilities to official weather forecasts can reveal whether traders are more or less confident than meteorologists about specific temperature ranges, highlighting areas of agreement or divergence in expectations.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Wellington on June 9 is priced as a set of outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell shares in outcomes they believe will occur, with prices reflecting the collective probability estimate. The price of each contract moves based on supply and demand, allowing participants to express granular views on whether Wellington will experience cooler, moderate, or warmer conditions on that date. Prices update continuously as new information and trading activity flow in.

The market resolves at Jun 9, 2026, after the highest temperature in Wellington on June 9 has been recorded and verified. Resolution is determined by the actual maximum temperature observed in Wellington on that calendar day, as measured by official meteorological stations. Once the official reading is confirmed, the outcome contract corresponding to the recorded temperature range or threshold is settled, and traders' positions are finalized based on whether their chosen outcome matched the realized temperature.

Major weather pattern shifts, including changes to high-pressure systems, frontal activity, or ocean temperature anomalies, could significantly move market odds. Updated meteorological forecasts from MetService or international weather models may trigger repricing as confidence in specific temperature ranges increases or decreases. Seasonal climate patterns, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and historical temperature data for early June in Wellington all inform trader expectations. As June 9 approaches, real-time weather updates and short-range forecasts will likely drive the most volatile price movements on Polymarket.