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$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Highest temperature in Wellington on June 13?
polymarket
kalshi

Highest temperature in Wellington on June 13?

Volume:
$216,181

105° to 106°

 - Kalshi

105° to 106° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 3:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

105° to 106°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,335
N/A
N/A
$10,082
Settled
Yes
polymarket

15°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

104° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$52,446
N/A
N/A
$37,776
Settled
No
kalshi

107° to 108°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,910
N/A
N/A
$18,821
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,565
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

109° to 110°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,133
N/A
N/A
$7,673
Settled
No
polymarket

13°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,455
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,098
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,627
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

111° to 112°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,514
N/A
N/A
$2,396
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,922
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,801
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

113° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,071
N/A
N/A
$896
Settled
No
polymarket

9°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$429
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group contains two completely separate geographic markets: Polymarket offers 13 binary contracts on the highest temperature in Wellington, New Zealand on June 13, 2026, while Kalshi offers 6 contracts on the maximum temperature in Phoenix, Arizona on June 12, 2026. These are distinct locations, dates, and temperature scales with no logical connection.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The event group mixes two entirely distinct geographic locations (Wellington, NZ vs Phoenix, AZ), different dates (June 13 vs June 12), and different temperature units (Celsius vs Fahrenheit). This violates basic event coherence and makes the group fundamentally unresolvable as a unified event.Hero tip: Do not trade across this group assuming correlation or hedging. These are two independent weather events. Confirm with PredictionHero whether this grouping is intentional or a data error. If intentional, request immediate relabeling to avoid trader confusion.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on highest temperature at Wellington International Airport, New Zealand on June 13, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius via Wunderground historical data. 13 binary contracts partition the outcome space from 9°C or below through 19°C or higher. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun 26.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves on maximum temperature in Phoenix, Arizona on June 12, 2026, measured in Fahrenheit via National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). 6 binary contracts partition outcomes from less than 105°F through greater than 112°F. Quote: 'If the maximum temperature recorded at Phoenix for Jun 12, 2026, is greater than 112° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum temperature recorded at Phoenix on June 12, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed through the NWS Phoenix office website under the Observed Weather tab. Temperature readings are divided into six ranges: 104°F or below, 105-106°F, 107-108°F, 109-110°F, 111-112°F, and 113°F or above. Each range corresponds to a distinct market outcome. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official NWS report takes precedence over other weather sources such as AccuWeather or Google Weather.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices reflect aggregated trader conviction rather than traditional meteorological models. While weather analysts publish point forecasts and confidence intervals based on atmospheric data, this market distills that information through financial incentives—traders who forecast accurately profit, creating pressure toward accuracy. Market odds often incorporate longer-tail risks and real-time updates that slower-moving forecasts may miss. Comparing the two reveals where public traders diverge from institutional models, sometimes signaling emerging consensus shifts or overlooked uncertainty.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this event differently due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and outcome framing. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with distinct risk tolerances and information sets, so the same underlying event can trade at different odds. Liquidity imbalances, regional user concentration, and subtle differences in how each platform phrases the temperature threshold also influence pricing. Arbitrage traders typically narrow these gaps, but temporary spreads create opportunities for informed participants.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, or sudden atmospheric changes can significantly reprrice this market. Tropical systems, high-pressure ridges, or unusual ocean temperatures affecting Wellington's microclimate may trigger trader repositioning. Real-time weather alerts and model consensus updates often spark volume spikes as participants adjust positions. Closer to June 13, intraday forecasts and early morning conditions will dominate price action, with traders locking in views or hedging final exposure as the event approaches.