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Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6?

Volume:
$196,947

13°C

 - Polymarket

13°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

13°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,234
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

11°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$101,883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,544
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,541
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,065
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,630
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,833
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,544
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Wellington temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for predictions on the highest temperature in Wellington on July 6. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief about whether the peak temperature will fall into specific ranges. The interface displays current implied probabilities, 24-hour trading volume, and order-book depth, allowing participants to monitor market sentiment and liquidity as new weather forecasts and data emerge leading up to the event date.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader conviction and risk appetite alongside expert models. While weather analysts publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric data, this market aggregates dispersed information from thousands of participants with financial incentives to be accurate. Comparing the implied probability from this market to official forecasts from New Zealand's meteorological service can reveal whether traders are pricing in tail risks or consensus that experts may underweight.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on order flow and share inventory. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome range has a distinct contract, and the combined probabilities across all ranges should sum to approximately 100 percent, accounting for fees. As traders buy shares predicting higher or lower temperatures, the price of each outcome shifts, reflecting the collective expectation of market participants about Wellington's weather on that specific day.

This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Wellington on July 6 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the official recorded maximum temperature against the predefined outcome ranges offered in the market. Traders holding shares in the outcome range that matches the verified temperature receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated long-range forecasts, and seasonal climate anomalies can significantly move this market. Tropical cyclone activity, changes in the Southern Oscillation Index, or unexpected high-pressure systems over New Zealand would prompt traders to reassess probabilities. Real-time updates from meteorological agencies, historical temperature records for early July, and broader climate trends in the Southern Hemisphere all serve as key signals that influence trading activity and price discovery in the weeks leading to the event.