Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 29?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Warsaw's May 29 high temperature, while traditional analyst forecasts come from meteorological models and expert opinion. Markets often incorporate faster-moving data and sentiment shifts than published forecasts. Comparing the market's implied probability to seasonal climate models and weather service predictions can reveal whether traders are pricing in warmer or cooler conditions than official guidance suggests for late May in Warsaw.

The market resolves on May 29, 2026. The outcome is determined by the official recorded highest temperature in Warsaw on May 29, sourced from authoritative meteorological data. Once the day concludes and the final temperature is confirmed, the contract settles based on whether the actual high matches the specified threshold or falls into the defined outcome category, concluding all open positions.

Major weather pattern shifts, including changes to Atlantic pressure systems, jet stream positioning, and warm air mass movements into Central Europe, could significantly move odds. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies, historical temperature anomalies for late May, and real-time weather model consensus will influence trader positioning. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric events—such as early heat waves or cold fronts—tracked in the weeks leading up to May 29 may trigger repricing as traders adjust expectations for Warsaw's high temperature.