Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 9?

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader consensus and often incorporate meteorological forecasts from professional weather services. While analyst predictions from national weather institutes and private forecasters provide deterministic point estimates or ranges, market odds aggregate diverse trader beliefs into probabilistic outcomes. Markets typically update faster than formal forecasts as new data arrives, though both sources converge as June 9 approaches. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than official meteorologists.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Temperature outcomes on Polymarket are typically structured as binary or range-based contracts, with each outcome representing a specific temperature threshold or band. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in whether the actual high will fall within that range. Prices range from 0 to 1 (or 0% to 100%), where higher prices indicate stronger market confidence in that outcome. Liquidity and trading volume concentrate around outcomes nearest to seasonal norms and recent weather model consensus, while extreme temperatures trade at lower volumes and wider spreads.

The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026, after the highest temperature in Warsaw on June 9 has been recorded and verified. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from a designated meteorological source, typically Poland's national weather authority or an internationally recognized weather station in Warsaw. The actual daily high temperature is compared against the predefined outcome thresholds established at market creation. Once verified, the correct outcome is confirmed and traders' positions settle accordingly.

Major weather pattern shifts, including changes to jet stream positioning, high-pressure system development, or unexpected cold fronts, can significantly alter temperature expectations. Updated numerical weather models from major forecasting centers typically drive the largest repricing events. Seasonal climate anomalies, such as early heat waves or cooler-than-normal patterns across Europe, influence longer-term odds. Real-time atmospheric conditions in the days immediately before June 9 create final adjustments. Traders also respond to historical temperature records for that date and broader climate trends affecting Central Europe during early summer.