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Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 4?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 4?

Volume:
$91,735

20°C

 - Polymarket

20°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 4, 2026

Closed: Jun 4, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

19°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,878
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,055
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,534
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,744
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,241
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$261
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket, while traditional weather forecasts come from meteorological models and analyst predictions. Prediction markets often incorporate broader information flows and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. Comparing the market's implied temperature range to official forecasts from weather services or climate analysts can reveal where traders expect conditions to diverge from standard models. Both sources offer value: markets show crowd conviction, while analyst forecasts provide peer-reviewed methodology.

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Warsaw on June 4 is priced through outcome shares that traders buy and sell to express their beliefs about the final temperature. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each temperature range or specific threshold carries a price reflecting its perceived probability. Traders profit by buying underpriced outcomes or selling overpriced ones. As new information emerges—weather model updates, seasonal patterns, or real-time atmospheric data—prices adjust to reflect changing expectations, creating a dynamic market signal through June 4.

The market resolves on Jun 4, 2026, after the highest temperature in Warsaw on June 4 has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on official temperature data from a designated meteorological source for Warsaw. Once the peak temperature for that day is confirmed, the outcome is determined and winning shares are settled. Traders should monitor the event specifications to confirm which weather station or data provider will be used as the authoritative source for the final temperature reading.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and updated meteorological models will influence market prices. Atmospheric pressure systems, jet stream positioning, and proximity to heat waves or cold fronts over Europe can significantly alter expectations for Warsaw's peak temperature. Real-time weather updates in late May and early June will drive trading activity. Historical climate data for early June in Warsaw and broader European weather trends also shape trader positioning. As June 4 approaches, short-term forecasts become more precise, typically tightening the market's probability distribution.