Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 3?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Warsaw on June 3 is priced as a set of outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell these contracts based on their belief in which outcome will occur. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability; higher prices indicate stronger consensus that outcome will resolve true. Liquidity and trading volume on each outcome determine how easily you can enter or exit positions, and prices adjust continuously as new information and trades flow in.

The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, after the highest temperature in Warsaw on June 3 has been recorded and verified. Resolution is determined by the official temperature data for that date, typically sourced from recognized meteorological authorities or weather stations serving Warsaw. The outcome that matches the actual recorded high temperature will be marked correct, and all positions will settle accordingly. Until that moment, prices remain fluid as traders adjust their bets based on forecasts and real-time weather developments.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems affecting Central Europe can significantly move odds. Tropical air masses or heat domes moving northward would increase probability of higher temperatures, while cool fronts or increased cloud cover would shift expectations downward. Real-time weather model updates from major forecasting centers often trigger repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for early June in Warsaw and any unusual climate anomalies reported closer to the date will influence trader positioning. Late-breaking jet stream changes or precipitation events can also reshape market sentiment in the final days.