Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 17?

Prediction market odds and traditional weather forecasts often diverge because they reflect different methodologies. Meteorologists rely on physics-based models and historical data to project temperature ranges, while traders in this market incorporate those forecasts alongside their own views, news, and uncertainty premiums. Markets tend to be more conservative or cautious than point forecasts, pricing in tail risks and the cost of being wrong. Comparing the odds here to published forecasts from national weather services can reveal where traders see additional upside or downside risk for that day's high in Warsaw.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares of competing outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—such as whether the high will be 26°C—has a price between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the implied probability. When more traders believe an outcome will occur, its price rises; when confidence falls, it drops. Your potential profit or loss depends on the entry price you pay and the final resolution. This continuous price discovery mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and trader sentiment right up until the event closes.

This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, once June 17 has passed and the day's weather data becomes available. The outcome is determined by the verified highest temperature recorded in Warsaw that day, confirmed against credible public sources. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution is objective and based on official meteorological records, ensuring all participants have clarity on how the market settled.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before June 17 arrives. Updated weather models from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing as forecasters refine their predictions. Unusual atmospheric patterns, seasonal anomalies, or climate data releases may prompt traders to reassess their positions. News about heat waves or cold fronts affecting Europe can influence sentiment. As the event date approaches, real-time weather updates and intraday forecasts typically drive increased trading activity and volatility. Even small shifts in model consensus can cause meaningful price swings as traders adjust their exposure.