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Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 12?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 12?

Volume:
$83,861

20°C

 - Polymarket

20°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,468
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,159
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,027
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and reflect collective expectations, while analyst forecasts come from meteorological models and expert judgment. For Warsaw's June 12 temperature, market prices may diverge from traditional weather forecasts depending on how much attention traders pay to seasonal patterns and recent climate data. Comparing the implied probability from Polymarket to official meteorological agency forecasts can reveal whether markets are pricing in more optimism or pessimism about extreme heat relative to expert models.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Warsaw on June 12 is priced through outcome shares that traders buy and sell. Each temperature range or specific threshold has an associated contract; the price of each share reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. Traders profit by correctly predicting which temperature bracket will be recorded, and prices adjust continuously as new information and trading activity flow in leading up to June 12.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated meteorological forecasts closer to June 12 could significantly move odds. Heat waves affecting Central Europe, changes in atmospheric pressure systems, and long-range climate models will influence trader expectations. Additionally, historical temperature records for Warsaw in early June and any unusual solar activity or ocean temperature patterns may prompt traders to adjust their positions. Real-time weather updates in the week leading up to June 12 will likely drive the most volatile price movements.