Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 5?

Prediction market odds aggregate real-money bets from many participants, often capturing information faster than traditional weather forecasts. While meteorologists rely on physics-based models and historical data, this market incorporates trader expectations and can diverge when new information emerges. Comparing the implied probability here to consensus forecasts from national weather services or meteorological institutes can reveal where the crowd expects conditions to differ from official models, though both approaches aim to predict the same underlying outcome.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome range for the highest temperature carries its own price, typically ranging from near-zero to near-unity, and the sum of all outcome probabilities equals one. As traders adjust their positions based on new information or changing expectations, prices shift to reflect the latest consensus view of which temperature range is most likely.

This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Warsaw on July 5 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual meteorological data against the predefined temperature ranges offered in the market. Whichever range contains the verified high temperature triggers the corresponding payout, and all other outcomes expire worthless.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, or anomalous atmospheric conditions in the weeks leading up to July 5 can significantly move prices. Heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual jet-stream behavior affecting Central Europe will prompt traders to reassess probabilities. Additionally, historical temperature records for Warsaw in early July and real-time weather model updates serve as key reference points. As the date approaches, short-term forecasts become more reliable, typically narrowing the range of likely outcomes and sharpening price discovery.