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Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 11?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 11?

Volume:
$48,630

22°C

 - Polymarket

22°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

22°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$415
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Warsaw July 11 temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for contracts tied to the highest temperature forecast in Warsaw on that date. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and trading volume to help participants monitor how the crowd is pricing different temperature outcomes. This market aggregates trader conviction around specific temperature thresholds, offering a live snapshot of where the market consensus stands as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader positioning and uncertainty pricing. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, this market reflects what traders are willing to risk on specific outcomes. Analyst forecasts tend to be more conservative, whereas prediction markets can price in tail risks and shift rapidly as new data arrives. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is more or less bullish on extreme temperatures than official forecasters.

This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Warsaw on July 11 becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual recorded temperatures against the contract thresholds traders have been wagering on. Resolution occurs after the trading window closes and official temperature data is confirmed, ensuring all participants have the same factual basis for settlement.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated meteorological forecasts, and seasonal climate anomalies can all shift trader positioning significantly. Real-time atmospheric data releases, changes in jet stream patterns, or unexpected heat waves in Europe may trigger rapid repricing. As July 11 approaches, any revision to official weather models or reports of unusual temperature extremes in the region could swing odds sharply. Traders also respond to broader climate trends and historical temperature comparisons for that date in Warsaw.