Highest temperature in Toronto on June 9?

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Toronto on June 9 is priced as a binary outcome: traders buy and sell shares representing whether the high will be 24°C or below. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market probability reflects the collective assessment of all active traders. Share prices range from 0 to 1 (or 0% to 100%), with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating liquidity and conviction. As new information emerges or the event date approaches, prices adjust dynamically based on trading flow and updated expectations.

The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026, after the highest temperature in Toronto on June 9 has been recorded and verified. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from a designated weather source, typically Environment Canada or a comparable meteorological authority. The outcome settles based on whether the recorded high meets or exceeds the threshold specified in the market contract. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout once resolution is confirmed and the market is officially closed.

Several factors could shift market odds before June 9. Updated long-range weather forecasts from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing as confidence in temperature predictions changes. Seasonal climate patterns, including La Niña or El Niño effects, influence regional temperatures. Historical anomalies or recent heat waves in Ontario may alter trader expectations. As June approaches, medium-range forecasts become more reliable, typically causing sharper price movements. Real-time weather model updates and any unusual atmospheric conditions reported in late May or early June will likely drive final trading activity.