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Highest temperature in Toronto on June 6?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Toronto on June 6?

Volume:
$44,093

26°C

 - Polymarket

26°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 7, 2026

Closed: Jun 6, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

26°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,013
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,373
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,138
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,131
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,199
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,052
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,034
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader beliefs about Toronto's June 6 high temperature, often incorporating meteorological models and historical seasonal data. Traditional weather analysts and Environment Canada forecasts typically rely on deterministic models and expert interpretation. Prediction markets may diverge from official forecasts because traders price in uncertainty, tail risks, and real-time information updates. Markets can sometimes outperform static forecasts by incorporating diverse data sources and incentivizing accuracy through financial stakes. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more bullish or bearish on extreme temperatures than official meteorological guidance suggests.

The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026, after the highest temperature in Toronto on June 6 has been recorded and verified. Resolution is determined by official temperature data for that date, typically sourced from Environment Canada or recognized meteorological authorities. The outcome is binary or categorical depending on the specific contract structure—for example, whether the high reaches a specified threshold or falls within a defined range. Once the actual temperature is confirmed, the market settles automatically and traders receive payouts based on their positions and the final result.

Several factors could shift market odds for Toronto's June 6 high temperature. Updated seasonal forecasts and long-range weather models from meteorological agencies may indicate warming or cooling trends. Major weather systems—such as high-pressure ridges or cold fronts—developing in the days before June 6 would trigger repricing. Historical temperature anomalies and climate patterns for early June in Toronto provide baseline expectations. Real-time atmospheric data, jet stream positioning, and solar activity can influence trader sentiment. As June 6 approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable, typically causing prices to converge toward the expected outcome and reducing uncertainty in the market.