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Highest temperature in Toronto on June 29?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Toronto on June 29?

Volume:
$58,276

28°C

 - Polymarket

28°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

28°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,458
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,204
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,618
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,654
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,351
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,024
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Toronto temperature market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for contracts tied to the highest temperature recorded in Toronto on June 29. Traders buy and sell shares based on their forecast of whether the peak temperature will hit specific thresholds. The interface displays current implied probabilities, recent trading volume, and a price chart showing how market sentiment has shifted over time. This gives participants a live window into the collective prediction of weather outcomes for that date.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and often incorporate meteorological data, historical patterns, and seasonal trends that professional forecasters also rely on. However, this market operates independently of official weather agency predictions. Comparing the implied probability here to consensus forecasts from Environment Canada or other analysts can reveal where traders see upside or downside risk relative to expert opinion. Divergences may signal either market inefficiency or emerging data that hasn't yet reached mainstream forecasts.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on buy and sell pressure. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades as a separate instrument, and the current price of a "yes" share directly reflects the market's implied probability. As new information arrives—updated weather models, seasonal shifts, or real-time conditions—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The most active outcome typically shows the strongest conviction among participants.

This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once June 29 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Toronto is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources documenting the actual peak temperature for that day. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution is typically finalized within hours of the market close, pending final data confirmation.

Updated weather models and extended forecasts are the primary drivers of price movement in this market. Major atmospheric patterns—jet stream shifts, high-pressure systems, or tropical moisture intrusions—can significantly alter temperature expectations. Real-time conditions as June 29 approaches will tighten the forecast and sharpen trader conviction. Historical anomalies, climate oscillations, and even urban heat island effects specific to Toronto may influence positioning. As the event date nears, intraday weather updates typically accelerate trading activity and volatility.