Highest temperature in Toronto on June 2?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced using an automated market maker model where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific temperature ranges or outcomes. The current odds reflect the balance of buy and sell orders in the liquidity pool. As traders adjust their positions based on new weather data or seasonal expectations, the price continuously updates. The market typically narrows as June 2 approaches and actual forecasts become more precise.

The market resolves on Jun 2, 2026, after the highest temperature in Toronto on June 2 has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by official temperature data from Environment Canada or the designated reference weather station for Toronto. Once the final high temperature is confirmed, the market settles to the outcome bracket or specific temperature that matches the recorded value, and traders' positions are paid out accordingly.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems tracking toward Ontario can significantly move odds. El Niño or La Niña conditions, jet stream positioning, and historical temperature anomalies for early June influence trader expectations. Real-time weather model updates from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing. Additionally, unusual heat waves or cold snaps in neighboring regions may signal similar conditions arriving in Toronto, causing traders to adjust their temperature outcome probabilities.