TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Highest temperature in Toronto on June 12?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Toronto on June 12?

Volume:
$45,313

26°C

 - Polymarket

26°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

26°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,792
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,851
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,348
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,968
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,347
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,553
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,458
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money bets from traders and reflect aggregate expectations for Toronto's June 12 high temperature. Traditional analyst forecasts from meteorological services typically rely on historical climate data and seasonal models. Market odds often incorporate late-breaking weather pattern shifts and real-time atmospheric data that analysts may update less frequently. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more bullish or bearish temperature scenarios than official forecasters, highlighting where market sentiment diverges from institutional predictions.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after the highest temperature in Toronto on June 12 has been recorded and verified. Resolution is determined by the official temperature reading from the designated weather station or meteorological authority for Toronto on that date. Once the final high temperature is confirmed, the outcome is settled against the threshold specified in each contract. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless.

Major weather pattern shifts, including changes to jet stream positioning or high-pressure system development, can significantly move odds. Seasonal climate anomalies, El Niño or La Niña effects, and long-range forecast updates from meteorological agencies will influence trader expectations. Short-term weather models released in the days before June 12 typically trigger the largest price swings as they narrow uncertainty. Urban heat island effects, cloud cover predictions, and wind patterns also factor into temperature forecasts. Breaking news about atmospheric conditions or revised seasonal outlooks can prompt rapid repricing on the market.