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Highest temperature in Toronto on July 10?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Toronto on July 10?

Volume:
$31,926

26°C

 - Polymarket

26°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

26°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,399
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,320
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,199
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,089
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,028
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$896
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$597
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Toronto July 10 temperature market dashboard displays real-time odds and price history for contracts tied to the highest temperature forecast for that day in Toronto. Traders can monitor current implied probabilities, recent trade activity, and total volume of $31,926 across all outcomes. The 24-hour volume of $21,229 reflects recent market interest. This dashboard gives you a live snapshot of how the prediction community is pricing different temperature scenarios as the event date approaches.

Prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of many traders, often revealing signals that differ from traditional weather forecasts. While meteorologists rely on physics-based models and historical data, this market reflects real-money incentives—traders who misread conditions lose capital. Comparing the implied odds here to consensus analyst views can highlight where the market sees asymmetric risk. If traders are pricing a higher or lower probability than official forecasts suggest, it may signal either market insight or an opportunity for informed bettors.

This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Toronto on July 10 is finalized and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual recorded temperatures against the specific thresholds defined in each contract. Resolution typically occurs within hours or a day after the event, once official data is confirmed. Traders holding the correct outcome receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless.

Weather model updates and seasonal forecasts are primary drivers—shifts in atmospheric patterns or tropical systems can significantly alter temperature expectations. Major weather alerts or heat advisories issued by meteorological agencies often trigger sharp price moves. As July 10 approaches, intraday forecasts become more precise, typically narrowing the range of plausible outcomes. Real-time conditions on the day itself, including cloud cover and wind patterns, will influence final prices. Breaking climate or weather news can also reshape trader sentiment weeks in advance.