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Highest temperature in Toronto on July 1?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Toronto on July 1?

Volume:
$45,807

36°C

 - Polymarket

36°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

36°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,076
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,499
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,820
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,187
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,015
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,398
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,363
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,678
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,207
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and collective trader judgment rather than meteorological models alone. While Environment Canada and other agencies publish deterministic temperature ranges, this market aggregates thousands of independent bets into a single probability. Traders incorporate model consensus, historical volatility, and emerging atmospheric data, sometimes pricing in tail risks that conventional forecasts downweight. The gap between market odds and analyst consensus can widen as new information arrives, making prediction markets a complementary lens on outcome likelihood.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on buy and sell volume. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a binary outcome—for instance, whether the high will reach 30°C—and the price reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As more capital flows into one side, the odds shift to rebalance supply and demand. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the market stays responsive to new weather data, model updates, and trader conviction throughout the period leading up to resolution.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Toronto for July 1 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual peak temperature against the contract thresholds specified in the market. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the close of the trading day, pending confirmation from official weather data sources.

Major weather model updates and atmospheric pattern shifts are the primary drivers of price movement in this market. Significant changes to ensemble forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, or Canadian model can trigger rapid repricing as traders adjust their bets. Unexpected heat waves, cold fronts, or jet stream repositioning in the days leading up to July 1 will influence positioning. Real-time satellite and radar data closer to the event date often spark volatility as uncertainty narrows. Seasonal climate anomalies and any unusual atmospheric blocking patterns also capture trader attention and reshape odds.