TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 31?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 31?

Volume:
$110,221

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 31, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,983
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,286
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,940
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,346
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,171
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,919
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,116
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$326
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket, while traditional analyst forecasts come from meteorological agencies and climate models. Prediction markets often incorporate broader information faster than static forecasts, but both sources have strengths. Meteorological models provide physics-based projections, whereas markets aggregate diverse participant views. Comparing the two can reveal whether traders expect conditions to deviate from official forecasts, offering insight into market sentiment about May 31 weather in Tokyo.

The market resolves at May 31, 2026. Resolution is determined by the highest temperature officially recorded in Tokyo on May 31, measured according to standard meteorological reporting. The outcome is typically verified against data from Japan's Meteorological Agency or equivalent official source. Once the day concludes and the final temperature is confirmed, the market settles based on which outcome bracket or threshold the actual high temperature falls into, paying out winning positions accordingly.

Several factors could shift market odds before May 31. Seasonal weather pattern updates, El Niño or La Niña developments, and long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies may influence trader expectations. Unusual heat waves or cold fronts affecting East Asia could trigger repricing. As May approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable and typically drive larger price movements. Real-time weather data, atmospheric pressure systems, and any climate anomalies reported in the weeks leading up to May 31 will all shape how traders adjust their positions and probabilities.