Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 7?

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Tokyo on June 7 is priced through outcome shares that represent discrete temperature ranges or thresholds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 1, where the price reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new weather models, seasonal data, or real-time conditions emerge, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The sum of all outcome prices typically equals 1, ensuring internal consistency across the temperature spectrum.

The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026, after the highest temperature in Tokyo on June 7 has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on identifying the official maximum temperature reading for that date from the designated reference source. Once the actual temperature is confirmed, the outcome shares corresponding to the correct temperature range or threshold are paid out at full value, while all other shares expire worthless. Traders should monitor the event date closely and confirm which official weather station or authority will provide the binding temperature data.

Several factors can shift market prices before June 7. Updated seasonal weather forecasts and medium-range models from meteorological agencies will influence trader expectations. Major weather systems, such as approaching fronts, typhoons, or high-pressure ridges over Japan, can dramatically alter temperature probabilities. Historical climate patterns for early June in Tokyo and any anomalies in regional atmospheric conditions will be priced in. Additionally, real-time temperature readings in the days leading up to June 7 may reveal trends that traders use to adjust their positions, causing significant price movement as the event date nears.