Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 6?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 6 is priced using an automated market maker model where each temperature outcome contract trades against a liquidity pool. Traders buy and sell shares representing specific temperature ranges or exact values, with prices reflecting the probability implied by the current pool balance. As more capital flows into higher or lower temperature outcomes, prices adjust dynamically. The spread between bid and ask prices depends on available liquidity and recent trading volume, with tighter spreads indicating greater market confidence and participation.

The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026, after June 6 concludes in Tokyo. Resolution is determined by the official highest temperature recorded in Tokyo on that calendar day. The outcome is typically sourced from authoritative meteorological data, ensuring an objective and verifiable settlement. Once the final temperature is confirmed and reported, the winning outcome contracts are paid out and losing contracts expire worthless. This timing allows traders to hold positions through the entire event window and settle based on actual observed conditions.

Major signals include updated seasonal weather models from the Japan Meteorological Agency, tropical storm systems or monsoon activity approaching the region, and shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system. Urban heat patterns, air quality alerts, and historical June temperature records for Tokyo can also influence trader positioning. Real-time atmospheric pressure changes, humidity forecasts, and any unusual solar activity or volcanic aerosol effects may trigger repricing. As June 6 approaches, daily weather updates and short-range forecasts become increasingly precise, driving final market adjustments as traders refine their temperature predictions.