TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 5?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 5?

Volume:
$92,014

20°C

 - Polymarket

20°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 5, 2026

Closed: Jun 5, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,762
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,331
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,040
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C or below

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,399
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C or higher

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,866
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this weather event is priced through outcome shares representing specific temperature ranges or thresholds for Tokyo's June 5 high. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to their belief about which temperature outcome will occur, with prices ranging from 0 to 1 reflecting implied probability. The market uses an automated market maker or order-book mechanism to determine prices based on supply and demand. As new information arrives—updated weather models, seasonal patterns, or real-time atmospheric conditions—prices adjust to reflect evolving trader expectations.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026, after June 5 concludes in Tokyo. Resolution is determined by the official recorded high temperature for that date, typically sourced from Japan Meteorological Agency data or equivalent authoritative weather records. The outcome is binary or categorical depending on how the market's temperature thresholds are structured. Once the actual high temperature is confirmed and published, the market settles automatically, and winning shares are credited to traders who backed the correct outcome.

Several factors can shift market odds before June 5. Updated weather models from meteorological agencies, seasonal temperature anomalies, and atmospheric pressure systems over East Asia are primary drivers. Major weather events—tropical systems, heat waves, or cold fronts—can dramatically alter expectations. Real-time temperature data from early June and intraday forecasts will tighten predictions as the event date approaches. Traders also respond to historical climate patterns, urban heat island effects, and any unusual atmospheric conditions reported in the days leading up to June 5.