TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 5, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026, after June 5 concludes in Tokyo. Resolution is determined by the official recorded high temperature for that date, typically sourced from Japan Meteorological Agency data or equivalent authoritative weather records. The outcome is binary or categorical depending on how the market's temperature thresholds are structured. Once the actual high temperature is confirmed and published, the market settles automatically, and winning shares are credited to traders who backed the correct outcome.
Several factors can shift market odds before June 5. Updated weather models from meteorological agencies, seasonal temperature anomalies, and atmospheric pressure systems over East Asia are primary drivers. Major weather events—tropical systems, heat waves, or cold fronts—can dramatically alter expectations. Real-time temperature data from early June and intraday forecasts will tighten predictions as the event date approaches. Traders also respond to historical climate patterns, urban heat island effects, and any unusual atmospheric conditions reported in the days leading up to June 5.