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Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 16?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 16?

Volume:
$84,450

26°C

 - Polymarket

26°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

26°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,596
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,825
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,951
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,736
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,516
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,109
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,230
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,158
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,956
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Tokyo temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movement for contracts tied to the highest temperature recorded in Tokyo on June 16. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature ranges, and the dashboard displays current bid-ask spreads, cumulative trading volume, and the probability implied by the leading outcome. This live data reflects market participants' collective forecast as conditions and forecasts evolve.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and risk appetite alongside meteorological models. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric data, this market aggregates the beliefs of many traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the implied probability here to consensus forecasts from Japan's Meteorological Agency or major weather services can reveal where market participants expect conditions to differ from baseline expectations.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares of each temperature outcome, with the contract price reflecting the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market uses an automated market maker to ensure continuous liquidity, so the odds update in real time as new trades flow in. Prices converge toward the true probability as more information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Tokyo on that date is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by official meteorological data, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement. Traders holding shares in the correct temperature range receive their payout once the event is confirmed and the market is officially closed.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical storm systems, or unexpected heat waves could significantly alter trader expectations and shift odds. Updated seasonal forecasts, changes in atmospheric pressure systems, or anomalies in ocean temperatures may trigger repricing. Additionally, real-time weather alerts and intraday temperature readings as June 16 approaches will likely drive sharp moves as traders refine their positions based on the latest meteorological data and observed conditions.